Fed:Gillard seeks to change the game

AAP General News (Australia)
08-12-2011
Fed:Gillard seeks to change the game

By Paul Osborne, Senior Political Writer

CANBERRA, Aug 11 AAP - Labor doesn't just need a game-changer - it needs a home ground
and a crowd of interested spectators.

Parliament resumes in the coming week following the winter break.

It wasn't quite a winter of discontent, as some pundits predicted - more a winter of disconnect.

The latest Newspoll out this week continues the coalition's solid, election-winning
lead and Prime Minister Julia Gillard's low popularity level.

That is despite the prime minister announcing over the break a number of policies Labor
strategists had hoped would be game-changers and get the party back in the running for
re-election.

The details of the carbon pricing scheme - including compensation for households and
generous assistance for the worst-affected industries - sunk like a lead zeppelin, despite
$13 million being spent on an advertising campaign and the opposition leader taking a
European vacation.

The Malaysian asylum-seeker deal was announced with some fanfare, but is now bogged
down - as has happened with most immigration policy over the past 50 years - in the courts.

And the policy is receiving little or no support from any of the interest groups the
government has sought to please.

Refugee advocates say it's worse than the Howard government's Pacific Solution, and
conservatives are questioning why Nauru, with its vast Australian taxpayer-funded resources,
can't be reopened if an overseas solution is what the government wants.

Cattle shipments to Indonesia have resumed, but not without Labor having burned many
of its bridges with the export industry, and kept the animal welfare lobby offside.

While there has been no rioting on the streets, voters are clearly not listening to
these government's messages - despite the prime minister declaring them as wins in her
promised "year of decision and delivery".

But these decisions and delivered promises are not reaping political dividends for
Gillard, if recent research is anything to go by.

JWS Research found voter priorities were health (75 per cent), keeping the economy
strong (72 per cent), improving education standards and outcomes (68 per cent), and cost
of living (66 per cent).

Only 32 per cent rated the carbon tax as important with 30 per cent saying the national
broadband network was a priority.

Carbon tax support is running at around 31 per cent - the same as before the details
were announced and consistent over the period since the broad scheme was announced.

Astonishingly, while two in three voters say they now have a good understanding of
the carbon tax package, they say the details are more likely to change their view for
the worse.

The prime minister during the past fortnight has moved to shift the game to the health
pitch - with her announcement of a deal with the states on hospital funding and supporting
a new national disability insurance scheme.

The health deal will come back into the public spotlight when the Council of Australian
Governments meets, and the disability insurance scheme is proving popular across the community.

Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten has promoted the disability insurance scheme as being
just as vital to the "quality of Australian life" as the minimum wage, age pension, compulsory
superannuation and Medicare.

If Shorten's message gets through, Labor's stocks can only be bolstered. However, the
ironic downside is that if such a scheme receives bipartisan support the political advantage
which stems from it will be much lessened for the ALP.

There are some difficult days ahead for the Gillard government.

Abbott will reignite the carbon tax debate, focusing on the poor timing of the policy
when global economic circumstances are making things difficult for families and business.

Expect to see much emphasis from the coalition on "uncertainty" - in economic terms,
having a minority government, with the Greens holding the Senate balance of power and
the tentative hold Gillard has on the Labor leadership.

Most voters favour an early election and there is a strong negative impression of the
Greens' influence in the Senate, according to at least two recent surveys.

The Gillard government could also face a by-election if there are developments in the
case of Labor MP Craig Thomson.

NSW police have received a complaint that Thomson may have misused a union-supplied
credit card when he was in charge of the Health Services Union and a separate allegation
has been made in relation to the use of taxpayer funding for a community newsletter.

Thomson vehemently denies any offences, but the federal coalition will prosecute their
case strongly in parliament and have begun casting around for potential candidates in
the very winnable seat of Dobell.

There'll be plenty of political footballs to be tossed around in Canberra next week,
but will anyone be watching?

AAP pjo/rl/jsh/nb

KEYWORD: NEWSCOPE FEDERAL (NEWS ANALYSIS) RPT

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